Tuesday's Notes of Interest
The US attack on Iran may not have wiped out its nuclear ambitions but it did set them back years - Seymour Hersh on Substack
Same old story in MENA: competition between bank loans and corporate bonds …
Semafor: Saudi Arabia’s domestic bond market is growing slowly as both lenders and borrowers prioritize direct loans from banks over public issuances. According to S&P Global Ratings, bonds and sukuk issuances remain small and concentrated among state-linked entities, with nonfinancial corporate issuers accounting for just 10% of the total. The number of foreign investors and levels of secondary trading are limited, in part because of onerous regulations and poor market infrastructure: S&P identified changes and upgrades that could accelerate the development of a Saudi riyal-denominated bond market, which is a long-term aim of the kingdom in order to diversify funding and access long-term capital.
We need more depository receipts in MENA - going in both directions …
Argaam: The Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) launched the first Saudi Depositary Receipts (SDRs), introducing a new financial instrument that eases access of Saudi capital market investors to foreign equities listed in global capital markets.
https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1826207
MENA’s use of civilian nuclear power is on the rise …
AGBI: Turkey to sign international deals for two new nuclear power plants by year-end if it receives competitively priced offers that meet its localization goals.
https://www.agbi.com/energy/2025/07/turkey-targets-nuclear-plant-deals-by-year-end/?utm_campaign=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_content=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_terms=newsletter
Would be interesting to see how this actually works in practice …
The Spectator Index on X: Texas officially recognizes gold and silver as legal tender
MENA’s massive infrastructure investment needs and potential …
The Circuit: Egypt is preparing to open up the operations of 11 major airports to private investment, in a sweeping modernization of its aviation infrastructure aimed at helping it to attract 30 million tourists annually. Backed by the World Bank's International Finance Corp. as strategic advisor, the plan aims to boost efficiency and service standards while keeping state ownership intact.
The Circuit: French utility giant Engie has brought Africa’s biggest wind farm fully online in Egypt. The 650-megawatt Red Sea Wind Energy Project in Ras Ghareb, Egypt, reached 100% operation in June and will be capable of powering more than 1 million homes. The wind farm is expected to cut carbon emissions by 1.3 million tons annually under a 25-year power purchase agreement with Egypt’s national grid. Engie, which operates nearly 1GW of wind capacity in Egypt, said it is expanding its footprint across the region, targeting solar, wind and hybrid energy projects in North Africa and the Gulf.
Solar is an energy source of the future …
Barchart on X: The cost of Solar Panels has fallen to an all-time low
AGBI: Iraq will retender its delayed Baghdad metro project under a new technical and financial framework, inviting bids from all companies.
https://www.agbi.com/transport/2025/07/iraq-to-retender-baghdad-metro-after-initial-award/?utm_campaign=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_content=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_terms=newsletter
Zawya: Abu Dhabi Airports partnered with JD’s Jingdong Property to develop over 70,000 square meters of advanced logistics facilities at the Abu Dhabi Airports Free Zone. The new facility will leverage the strategic proximity to airport facilities and transport infrastructure to support multimodal logistics.
https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/companies-news/abu-dhabi-airports-and-jingdong-property-announce-strategic-joint-venture-to-establish-e-commerce-logistics-hub-xbx5fqiz?utm_campaign=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_content=2025-07-04+Daily+Circuit&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_terms=newsletter
MENA opportunities in carving out mobile towers into standalone companies …
Muscat Daily: Brookfield acquires majority stake in Oman Tower Company, a leading independent provider of telecommunications towers in the sultanate, managing a portfolio of over 2,450 sites across various governorates. With over US$1tn in assets under management, Brookfield operates the world’s second-largest portfolio of telecommunication towers, encompassing approximately 315,000 sites worldwide. The firm has also been a major direct foreign investor in the GCC region since 1997, with a current regional asset portfolio valued at approximately US$15bn across infrastructure, private equity, and real estate sectors.
https://www.muscatdaily.com/2025/07/02/brookfield-acquires-majority-stake-in-oman-tower-company/
This is not new. In one of his books published in the 1980s, Robert Reich describes how the US had a centrally planned economy: if the US Government decides to buy widgets, given its purchase power and order size, companies will invest to product widgets to sell them to the Government. Now governments will influence capital flows, and not just in the US.
FT: Financial repression refers to policies designed to steer capital to fund government priorities, rather than where it would flow in unregulated markets. Rumours of a “Mar-a-Lago accord”, which would manage the dollar’s value down while forcing global investors to discount and lock in lending to Washington. These include a tax on remittances, levies on foreign investment stakes by nations with policies Washington disapproves of, and the promotion of dollar-denominated stablecoins and looser bank leverage regulations. The last two would both incentivise flows into US government debt securities.
https://www.ft.com/content/87683676-7de6-4642-bcea-bdf1a62ea34a?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content
The Gulf is looking for ways to diversify oil and gas shipping routes …
The Circuit: Iraq sent a high-level delegation to Kurdistan to discuss resuming oil exports through Turkey via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, amid fears of future regional tensions that could disrupt oil exports.
… and other items as well.
FT: Middle East tensions could trigger food price shock, warns fertiliser boss. Heightened tensions in the Middle East could trigger a fresh food price shock by straining global supply chains for crop nutrients and energy. Fertiliser groups and customers were “monitoring closely” the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the world’s urea and 20 per cent of global LNG flows, warning that any disruption could ripple through global food production.
https://www.ft.com/content/12fb3204-c69c-49c2-92fc-f7c9f5402668?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content
MENA’s phosphate potential …
Zawya: The Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority signed an agreement with Elsewedy CAP Investments to explore, develop and extract phosphate ore from the Sebaiya mines in the Nile Valley.
https://www.zawya.com/en/business/commodities/egypt-emra-elsewedy-sign-partnership-to-explore-develop-phosphate-reserves-in-sebaiya-emi5dkit?utm_campaign=2025-07-02+Daily+Circuit&utm_content=2025-07-02+Daily+Circuit&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_terms=newsletter
Ziad Daoud on X: Saudi Arabia's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund posted $7 billion profit in 2024.
Arab News: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund boosted its total assets to $1.15 trillion by the end of 2024, an 18 percent increase compared to the previous year. The sovereign wealth fund reported gross revenues of SR413 billion for 2024, reflecting a 25 percent year-on-year rise.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2606398/business-economy
Libya rising …
Crisis Group: Frozen Billions: The UN Security Council has granted the Libyan sovereign wealth fund permission to reinvest some of its assets that have been frozen since 2011. But Council members remain reluctant to reform the sanctions constraining Libya’s finances while the country is divided. They also lack confidence in the fund’s competence.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/libya/249-frozen-billions-reforming-sanctions-libyan-investment-authority?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
The Circuit: Global energy giants, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Eni, are among 37 bidders in Libya’s first energy exploration tender in decades, with contracts expected to be signed by the end of the year.
More disruption and instability on the way …
World Bank: Fragile and conflict-affected economies are now home to about half of the world’s extreme poor. GDP per capita is shrinking. Development goals are slipping out of reach.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/fragile-and-conflict-affected-situations-vulnerabilities?cid=ECR_TT_worldbank_EN_EXT
The Kobeissi Letter on X: The US stock market has never been this large. Total US public equity market capitalization hit a record $63.8 TRILLION, according to Goldman Sachs data. That’s DOUBLE the size it was 5 years ago. By comparison, previously it took 8 years, from 2012 to 2020, for the market to double in value. The US stock market is now more than 3 TIMES larger than Europe’s. It is also now larger than the combined market size of Europe, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and India.
Arab News: Saudi FDI net inflows jump 44% in Q1 to $5.9bn.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2606252/business-economy
A similar strategy was adopted by Turkey for its defence industry many years ago …
The Circuit: French defense and technology giant Thales is advancing plans to deepen its footprint in Saudi Arabia through a radar production facility and expanded cooperation with Saudi Arabian Military Industries. The goal is to bolster the kingdom’s air defense capabilities and contribute to its broader strategy of localizing military production and becoming a global defense supply chain player. With military spending reaching over $80 billion in 2024, Saudi Arabia remains a key market for Thales’ long-term growth and innovation in defense technologies.
Arab News: Saudi IPO proceeds hit $2.8bn in H1 this year.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2606274/business-economy
gfma: Hong Kong listings reach record high as market booms. The Hong Kong Exchange has seen a record 208 companies apply for listings in the first half of the year, driven by a booming equity market and Chinese investors. The surge has propelled Hong Kong to the top of global capital market rankings, raising $13.9 billion in initial public offerings and secondary listings.
gfma: London IPO fundraising hits 30-year low amid volatility. London's IPO fundraising has hit a three-decade low, with only £160 million raised from five listings in the first half of 2025, the weakest performance since 1995. This sharp decline underscores concerns about the health of the UK capital markets, attributed to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility.
GCC stock markets continue to attract international investors …
Iridium Advisors: Key Insights for June 2025:
GCC markets shrugged off geopolitical risks in June, attracting $2.4 billion in net foreign inflows and delivering the strongest quarter since 2022
Saudi led with $971mn in inflows, followed by the UAE at $840mn
Kuwait marked its 12th consecutive month of net inflows
As stated in these notes previously, the global stock market sector has started another period of mergers and acquisitions …
John Lothian News: Euronext in talks to buy Athens Stock Exchange for $470 million
Reuters
Euronext (ENX.PA) is in talks to buy up to 100% of the Athens Stock Exchange in a 399 million euro ($470 million) all-share deal that would be the latest for a group that already operates stock markets in countries including France and the Netherlands. Euronext said on Tuesday it planned to offer one new share for every 21 shares held by investors in the Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX) (EXCr.AT), valuing ATHEX stock at 6.90 euros a piece.
/jlne.ws/44ywfN3
Digital assets are growing in MENA …
Mondo Visione: Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Partners With HSBC And FAB To Launch MENA’s First Digital Bond. First DLT-based digitally native bond to be listed in the MENA region. Issued by First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) using HSBC Orion1, a market-leading digital assets platform operated by the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) in Hong Kong.
https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/abu-dhabi-securities-exchange-adx-partners-with-hsbc-and-fab-to-launch-menas-202573/https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/abu-dhabi-securities-exchange-adx-partners-with-hsbc-and-fab-to-launch-menas-202573/
Gulf Today: Major digital-asset exchanges are considering moves to Dubai and Hong Kong after Singapore introduced stringent new rules on overseas crypto activity. Individual investors in the UAE pay no income or capital-gains tax on crypto profits, and companies in free zones can often reduce the new 9% federal corporate tax to near zero if most business is conducted outside the Emirates. Free-zone regulators in Dubai, the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) run their own crypto frameworks, allowing founders to “pick the regulator that fits the business model.
https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2025/07/06/crypto-exchanges-eye-dubai-hk-as-singapore-clampdown-prompts-exodus
Bitcoin.com: DeFi Technologies, a Nasdaq-listed financial technology company, has officially registered and established offices in Dubai and opened a dedicated trading desk within the Dubai Multi Commodities Center (DMCC) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The move aims to capitalize on the surging institutional interest in digital assets across the Middle East. Regarded as the first Nasdaq-listed digital asset manager of its kind, DeFi Technologies provides equity investors with diversified exposure to the decentralized economy while its subsidiary Valour offers access to more than 65 digital assets via regulated exchange traded products (ETPs). There are plans to expand this to 100 by the end of 2025.
https://news.bitcoin.com/nasdaq-listed-defi-technologies-sets-up-shop-in-dubai-to-tap-menas-crypto-boom/
The South are using their own currencies already …
Eabr: The Eurasian Development Bank, a supranational financial institution headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan, issued an AED 200 million private placement bond, denominated in dirham, in the local UAE capital markets, arranged by First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) in partnership with Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD).
https://eabr.org/en/press/news/eurasian-development-bank-raises-funds-on-the-uae-capital-markets-to-finance-its-investment-projects/
Education in MENA is big business …
Gulf Business: Dubai school operator Taaleem moves closer to Dh1 billion in 2024-25 revenue. DFM-listed Taaleem is also looking to make headway in the nursery space. “With our portfolio now comprising 38 schools and a student body exceeding 41,300, we remain well-positioned to capture further growth opportunities,”.
https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/dubai-school-operator-taaleem-moves-closer-to-scoring-over-dh1-billion-in-2024-25-revenue-1.500186648
Good summary of recent transactions by sector …
Freshfields: Market Trends in the Middle East and Northern Africa
https://transactions.freshfields.com/post/102kcse/market-trends-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa
Well done !
The Circuit: Morocco’s economy grew 4.8% in the first quarter of the year, the fastest in four years, due to stronger household spending and a rebound in the farming sector, according to the planning commission.
UAE in Africa …
The Circuit: Etihad Rail could take a lead role in upgrading dilapidated railways in Africa, as the developer and operator of the UAE’s nascent national rail network eyes opportunities for overseas expansion. The company signed a host of initial cooperation agreements in May with governments in Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan and Chad. UAE is being courted to provide a potential lifeline to Kenya’s Mombasa-Malaba standard gauge railway connection to Uganda, an ambitious project which stalled about 400 kilometers short of the border after China pulled back on lending. The railway will eventually continue on to South Sudan.
The whole world, not just MENA, is experiencing “concentration” …
Forbes: The five most profitable companies in MENA collectively reported $131.8 billion in earnings in 2024, representing over 55% of the total profits generated by the region’s top 100 companies.
https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/industry/business/menas-most-profitable-companies-1
Investor protection is paramount to retaining investor confidence in one’s capital market …
Arab News: Provincial court delivers Pakistan’s first-ever conviction for insider trading.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2604822/pakistan
NYT DealBook: India’s securities regulator accused the trading firm Jane Street Group of market manipulation and sought to seize 48.4 billion rupees ($570 million) as it cracks down on high-speed trading. (Bloomberg)
The global competition for minerals …
FT: China snaps up mines around the world in rush to secure resources. Dealmaking hits highest level since 2013 as groups seek raw materials that underpin global economy.
https://www.ft.com/content/51c2016a-28f3-4600-9e08-a491410d34a9
Conference: Mondo Visione: Borsa İstanbul will host the 64th World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) General Assembly and Annual Meeting in İstanbul on October 21-23, 2025
https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/world-exchanges-meet-in-istanbul-202572?disablemobileredirect=true
Hazem Ali Hijazi on Facebook: The Latin Church (Roman Catholic) in Al Husn, near Irbid, north Jordan. Built in 1903. Photo taken in 1923.
“When you hate, you generate a reciprocal hate. When individuals hate each other, the harm is finite; but when great groups of nations hate each other, the harm may be infinite and absolute. Do not fall back upon the thought that those whom you hate deserve to be hated. I do not know whether anybody deserves to be hated, but I do know that hatred of those whom we believe to be evil is not what will redeem mankind.”
Bertrand Russell
All the best
Majd